A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
